Table 1 Direct, indirect, and total effects of offline contexts, online influences, and online discourse on future COVID-19 infections (21-day lag). Model 1 includes the full data corpus without mask-wearing data (\(N = 11266\)). Model 2 uses a subset of the data coinciding with mask-wearing data (\(N = 4010\)). Estimates are standardized except binary variable for Republican governor

Model 1

Present Cases

0.555\(^{***}\)

0.001\(^{*}\)

0.556\(^{***}\)

Mask Mandates

-0.218\(^{***}\)

-0.008\(^{***}\)

-0.226\(^{***}\)

Republican Governor

0.222

0.162

0.383

Stance Ratio

0.026\(^{***}\)

-

0.026\(^{***}\)

Bot Activity

-

0.002\(^{***}\)

0.002\(^{***}\)

Low-Credibility Information

-

0.006\(^{***}\)

0.006\(^{***}\)

Model 2

Present Cases

0.627\(^{***}\)

-0.011\(^{***}\)

0.616\(^{***}\)

Mask Mandates

-0.033

-0.078\(^{***}\)

-0.111\(^{+}\)

Republican Governor

0.586\(^{**}\)

1.306\(^{***}\)

1.892\(^{***}\)

Mask Behavior

-0.349\(^{***}\)

-

-0.349\(^{***}\)

Stance Ratio

0.013

0.004\(^{**}\)

0.017\(^{*}\)

Bot Activity

-

0.002\(^{+}\)

0.002\(^{+}\)

Low-Credibility Information

-

0.006\(^{+}\)

0.006\(^{+}\)